Not as clear cut as it appears.

Readers will be aware I had grave reservations about the mechanics of the recent referendum and the 3 options presented. To my mind there were serious problems with all three choices.  Had we the option I should have been very much in the none of the above camp.

Since it was not a binding referendum, the final decision will be taken by the States (notwithstanding their historical inability to deal with reform).   As such the outcome is indicative, it serves to inform the States in their decision making, not direct them.  The question therefore arises as to what the results  tell us and how do we interpret them.

Simplistically, B got the most votes so that is that.  However there are two problems with that.  First is that there was differential turnout in different constituencies, the second being that the total votes achieved by B was less than half of those who voted. ( 6804 first prefs plus 1386 transfers from C out of 16624 total ballots gives 49.27%). The reason is less than half the C first preferences expressed a second preference.  Whether these were voting for retaining senators, or against superconstituences, or something else cannot be determined.

The only way I can see to deal with the differential turnout is to scale the results by each parish to bring the totals up to 100% for each.  I have attached screen shots of the spreadsheet I used to do this.

The outcome on first preferences is A 27,065; B 24,889; C 11,704. 
After transferring the C votes the totals are A 27,585; B 29,773.
 In percentages terms 48.1% to 51.9%

I am not enough of a statistician to judge if that difference is significant, but it suggests the real mood of the people is closer than the raw results suggest.

Of course none of this would have been so much of a problem had the referendum been a traditional yes/no question. It also does not answer the question of what would have happened if we had other options too such as retaining the constables  in the States but without a vote.


(click image to enlarge).

Electoral Reform mechanics

I have written previously on the failings as I see them of the way the Electoral Commission set about  its task, see why-i-have-not-made-submission. A few of those points have been reiterated elsewhere, alongside questions over why 42, and of course why there are effectively 2 votes possible for some options, but only one for others.

Looking at the way the questions and the voting mechanics have been set up for the April 24th vote I  wonder if those making the arrangements really understand either referenda or AV/STV voting systems and their merits.

It is normal for a referendum to have one question and a straight yes/ no vote.  The aim is to have a clear mandate from the electorate for a decisive and meaningful change in a constitution or major long running international arrangement. Of course you don't need AV/STV for a simple binary choice.

The problem with the questions the EC have given us is that they are  necessarily incomplete because there are undefined ramifications to the options, such the issues arising from the mechanics of government and the number of ministers, the right of requete if constables are removed etc. 

But I am also perplexed by the decision to use AV for the voting.  Why - because if you have AV there is absolutely no reason not to have all the valid options on the paper.  We could have options for retaining senators, having all island wide voting, having smaller constituencies etc.  The great merit of AV, and more so STV, is that you have a mechanism to allow people to express their real views and preferences, and derive a broadly acceptable (or perhaps least objectionable) result at the end. 

So why only three options?  It would possibly make sense if people were to have but one vote, first past the post style. The cynical would observe the system has been crafted to give the best prospect for returning a particular desired outcome.  The more generous minded might think it is simply that the EC members have not the depth of experience in referenda and AV voting systems to grasp the fundamentals of what they are doing in terms of electoral mechanics.  What is for sure is we have missed an opportunity to do this in a meaningful way that would give a very clear steer to the States over the real wishes and priorities of the electorate.

Is the CoI a bigger issue than you imagined?

It seems we are finally to have a debate in the States on setting up a Committee of Inquiry into child abuse in the Island. It is on the order paper for the sitting on 5th March, see http://www.statesassembly.gov.je/AssemblyOrderPapers/2013/2013.03.05%20Order%20Paper.pdf . For reference, the original move to request a Inquiry was in 2011 (see http://www.statesassembly.gov.je/AssemblyPropositions/2011/45258-28763-222011.pdf.  For a detailed run down of why it has taken so long to come about you could take a look at Bob Hill's blog at http://bobhilljersey.blogspot.com/2013/03/jerseys-historical-abuse-inquiry-no.html

There are of course numerous stakeholders in this process.  The victims and survivors, particularly those whose cases were not prosecuted, who deserve and indeed may need a chance to voice publically what happened to them.  There are former staff.  There are the agencies who should have realised something was amiss and either did  not identify an issue, or identified it but ignored or possibly colluded with it.  There are the past politicians and the senior civil servants in the States who could and should have identified and acted on problems. And of course there are the actual perpetrators of abuse and their colluders.

Missing from that list is the Law Officers. Yet I think they have a huge amount at stake in the CoI. In fact I would go as far as to say this CoI has the potential to be as constitutionally significant to us as the reforms of 1948.  I think this explains is why certain statements and comments have been issued to try to shape the debate and the approach of the CoI even in advance of it being sanctioned by the States.

Perhaps the best place to start is what  an inquiry is and is not. Canada makes a lot of use of Public Enquiries similar to our Committee of Inquiry.  There is a good piece discussing a number of important topics such as whether judges should chair at
http://www.ontariocourts.ca/coa/en/ps/speeches/publicinquiries.htm.  The item I would like to take up is the purpose of the inquiry ' Broadly speaking, there are two types of independent inquiries: those that have a mandate to find and report on facts, and those with a mandate to make recommendations for the development of public policy.'  Our CoI has nothing to do with policy formation - it is about finding and reporting the facts. 

Regulation 6 of the CoI regulations http://www.statesassembly.gov.je/AssemblyPropositions/2007/7471-48374-562007.pdf  is clear. "Because a committee of inquiry can be seen as a quasi- judicial process witnesses can, if the committee wishes, be examined on oath. " The key phrase is 'can be seen as quasi-judicial'.  Quasi means resembling or being akin to, but not actually being.  Can be seen as means it is one possible view.  To put it in other words it is NOT a judicial process.   Indeed point 10 of the AGs comments says 'At the conclusion of its deliberations, a Committee of Inquiry reports back to the States Assembly. It does not, however, make any finding of guilt or innocence in a criminal sense nor does it determine a legal right.'


Last month Tony Musing blog made some important observations on the comments from the Attorney General at http://tonymusings.blogspot.com/2013/02/prejudging-issues.html.  However I think it is worth re-reading the AG's comments (http://www.statesassembly.gov.je/AssemblyPropositions/2012/P.118-2012%20Com.pdf) bearing in mind the points above. This leads to some further questions.   Why in item 14 does the AG refer to people accused by complainants?  There can be no such thing in a fact finding non-judicial process.  There are only witnesses and evidence.

In item 23 we read  'There is a fundamental principle that the prosecution process should be free from any political influence or interference in any way'.  The quid pro quo of that is the prosecution service should not act politically or influence political process. A point missing from the AG's comment. Why?  In fact the whole of section D section could be read so an attempt to head off questioning of prosecution decisions and processes.  However as an independent CoI is neither a political body nor a judicial one, it is perfectly free to question and inquire into the prosecution process without breach of the fundamental principle outlined above.

If the AG succeeds in his presentation of this CoI as a judicial process with accusers and defendants and the use of lawyers to represent the opposing sides, then he wins a much larger point.  He will in effect have established  that the Law Officers are unchallengeable by any format or any body in the Island.  Much as he might tout the fundamental principle of individual prosecutions and processes being free of politics, that situation would violate an even more important and precious principle that none, not even Law Officers, is above the law or public scrutiny.  We have come perilously close to that state.  It is that sort of thinking that got us in a position that a magistrate cannot be relieved of pay and office when found guilty of a crime.

It is imperative that all States members understand the hugely important and significant repercussions of the amendments and the comments of the AG when voting on this proposition and amendments. This is a turf war that the people , transparency, accountability and democracy cannot afford to lose.

Getting noticed

Thanks to my friend Nick Palmer (http://nickpalmer.blogspot.com) for spotting that I was quoted in the Independent today on the subject of population, resources and services.  See http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/jersey-considers-population-cap-to-deal-with-increasing-migration-8444906.html

Over the last 6 months I have done a number of interviews with local media on population, pollution, Care leavers and child abuse, climate change and Plémont. What is interesting to me is the spread of those media. BBC Radio and ChannelTV both did a number of interviews, but remarkably the JEP did not cover a single one. I have no idea why, but it is nothing new.

 It transpired that my e-mail address had been blocked at the JEP sometime in the run up to the election in 2011 - perhaps they still regard me as persona non grata. I have a number of times queried content and the failure to update links on their web site (ThisIsJersey), most recently the failure to update the link on the transport site to the new bus service provider and timetable for a number of days after the service began.

 I have also queried the monopoly they have over the publication of the official Gazette, and the inconsistent updating of that public information on their web site. Up to 1960 the law actually required the gazette to be published in 4 Sunday papers - 2 in English 2 in French. The last local French newspaper closed in 1959, which forced a change in the law. If you think 4 sounds like a lot of newspapers for our little island, at one point in the earlier part of the nineteenth century there were 10 or more in town alone. Of course in 1960, we had no local radio or television and the web had not been conceived. It seems to me if we were serious about the Gazette as a public information service we would change the law to make better use of those media. At the very least we should have a properly updated and maintained online gazette as part of the States of Jersey web site.

JiT in January

There is plenty going on below to stimulate any Beginner's Mind. We continue to look for positive, fun and practical things to do, to sow the seeds and tend the shoots of a kinder, more skilful, more resilient and more self-reliant island community.

• J-CAN monthly meeting - Tuesday 8 January, 8.00 - 9.30 pm at the Town House, New St, St Helier. Energy White Paper; Transport Policy; Energy audits; Campaigns and Activities; J-CAN website and newsletter
  
• Upcycling (sewing) - Thursday 10 January, 6.30 - 9.00 pm at the Harbour Gallery, St Aubin.     New creative ideas for 2013? Come along and enjoy MAKING something, professional advice, chat and laughter. It is important that you book in with Kirsten, so that she knows approximate numbers,  via Facebook, or by e-mail at atlanticblueuk@aol.com
• J-CAN talk: Electric Cars: The Future for Jersey? - Tuesday 15 January, 8.00 - 9.30 pm in the Members’ Room, Société Jersiaise, Pier Road, St. Helier. Kevin Sharpe of Zero Carbon World ( http://www.zerocarbonworld.org/) will talk about the importance of electric transport in a low-carbon strategy, and the particular relevance of electric vehicles to an island such as Jersey.
  
• Green Drinks - Thursday 17 January, 7.30 - 9.00 pm at the Town House, New St, St Helier. Start the New Year with a quiet drink, chatting with like-minded and friendly people, in front of the open fire. What could be better?
  
• JiT Talk: The big picture and YOU - Saturday 19 January, 7.30 - 9.00 pm in the Cafe, Communicare, Quennevais Rd, St Brelade. A talk by James Williams. James was a friend of the late John Seymour and helped John on some of his projects. He also worked at the Tibetan Farm School, set up to teach Tibetan refugees subsistence farming. James became a follower of Maharishi Mahesh Yogi and meditated at least an hour every single day for over thirty years. He bought a nine acre property in Hereford and grew crops using the Bio Dynamic method. In his talk James would like to share a point of view that is not commonly held. He now lives in St Brelade, with his wife of over fifty five years and is a keen organic gardener.
  
• Open Meditation - Wednesday 23 January, 6.00 - 6.40 pm under cover at Liberty Wharf, or outside in Liberation Square if the weather if fine. Thirty minutes of silent meditation followed by ten minutes of sound bath - please bring your voices, singing bowls, chimes. Bring a candle, bring your own cushion or stall for sitting. Everyone welcome, all ages, from every path, experienced in meditation or not.
• JiT General Meeting - Wednesday 23 January, 7.30 - 9.00 pm, in 'The Boardroom', The Town House, New St, St Helier. Minutes of the last meeting are attached here, as always. Everyone welcome.
• JiT Filmnight: Home (2009) 93 mins. - Saturday 26 January, 7.30 - 9.30 pm in the Cafe, Communicare, Quennevais Rd, St Brelade. Moving and visually stunning footage, all shot from an aerial perspective. Yann Arthus–Bertrand shares with us his sense of awe about our planet and his concern for its health. "In the past 200,000 years, humans have upset the balance of planet Earth, a balance established by nearly four billion years of evolution. We must act now... The price is too high." A symphony of beautiful music throughout written by Armand Amar.
  

Everyone is welcome at all these events. There is no charge for any of them, and where we can, we make free refreshments available.

A bumpy start to the new bus service

Today was the first day of the new bus service under CTPlus.  One expects some teething problems , but the scale of adverse comment and mishap reported to me is worrying.  The drop in passenger numbers in Guernsey since the same outfit took over their service in April made me apprehensive from the outset.  I won't report the third party points, but my two journeys today on the buses I can recount.

The 7:30am  from the Parish Hall did not arrive did not arrive until almost ten to eight.  This despite a lower level than normal traffic on the roads.  When I did get a number 9 the driver was unable to get the new ticket machine to issues the £1.70 fare, only the £1.20  tickets.  At the station, none of the information boards was working, and the hand written notices showed that despite keeping largely the same routes, the departure stands have been changed. My return journey was ten minutes late leaving, and when it got to the border of St Peter and St Brelade the driver clearly had no awareness that the road had been closed all day for electric cable work. 

On the plus side, the seats have more leg room and the buses are quieter.  But this is no substitute for clear information and punctual arrival and departure at stops.  Unless service levels  pick up I foresee local passenger numbers following the Guernsey trend.

Jersey in Transition (JiT) December

• Green Drinks - Thursday 6 December, 7.30 - 9.30 pm at the Town House, New St, St Helier. Drinks and a chat in front of the open fire. Eco this and climate that, Christmas is coming and we're all getting fat. Bag of crisps anyone?
  
• Open Meditation - Tuesday 11 December, 6.00 - 6.40 pm under cover at Liberty Wharf, or outside in Liberation Square if the weather is fine and if people prefer. Thirty minutes of silent sitting followed by ten minutes of sound bath. Please bring your voices, your mantras, singing bowls, chimes, bring a candle, bring your cushion or stall for sitting meditation. Bring everyone! A moment of stillness at the turn of the year... Everyone welcome, all ages, from every path, experienced in meditation or not.
• J-CAN monthly meeting - Tuesday 11 December, 8.00 - 9.30 pm at the Town House, New St, St Helier.
• Upcycling (sewing) - Thursday 13 December, 6.30 - 8.30 pm at the Harbour Gallery, St Aubin. Finish your handmade Christmas presents and decorations. As always, it is important that you book in with Kirsten, so that she knows approximate numbers, either by phone 485976, via Facebook, or by e-mail at atlanticblueuk@aol.com
• Giving Table - Saturday 15 December, 10.00 am - 3.00 pm, at the junction of Don St and King St, St Helier. Our Christmas gifts for weary Christmas shoppers. We need your unwanted items - good things that you no longer use, but which will make somebody happy this year as they give them a new life. Please bring items to give either at the start, from 9.30 am while we're setting up, or at any time during the day directly to the stall. You can also give items in advance either to Ruth or to Anna . Ruth is also organising a rota for the day to man the stall - please contact her by phone, e-mail or via Facebook if you can help for an hour. Last year, this was a joy and it worked very well.
• JiT General Meeting - Tuesday 18 December, 7.30 pm, in 'The Boardroom', The Town House, New St, St Helier. Minutes of the last meeting are attached here, as always. Everyone welcome.
  
• Film - Chasing Ice - Thursday 20 December, 8.00 pm, at the Jersey Arts Centre, Phillips Street, St Helier. Acclaimed photographer James Balog discovers undeniable evidence of our changing planet. "You've never seen images like this before... It deserves to be seen and felt on the big screen" says Robert Redford. Travelling with a team of young adventurers across the brutal Arctic, Balog risks his career and his well-being in pursuit of the biggest story facing humanity. As the politicians dawdle and the intensity of natural disasters ramps up globally, Chasing Ice (76 mins) depicts a heroic photojournalist on a mission to deliver fragile hope to our carbon-powered planet. Admission: £3, with an optional donation of £1.50. Proceeds from ticket sales will go to Jersey in Transition and sponsorship for event was kindly provided by the Jersey Cooperative Society. Bring family, friends and colleagues.
  
• Yule Celebration - Friday 21 December, 6.30 - 9.00 pm, in The Press Room, The Elms, La Chéve Rue, at the top of St Peter’s Valley. All are welcome. Bring food and drink for yourselves or to share, bring 'plate bags' with whatever plates, bowls, cutlery, mugs or glasses that you need (and don't forget to take them all away with you at the end!) Bring good cheer and merriment, and we'll provide the twinkling candles, green decorations, music, teas, kettles, and somehow we'll all have a great time. Please leave quietly and promptly as there are residents and families in the other buildings.
• Talk - Marine Conservation Zones - Thursday 27 December, 7.30 - 9.00 pm in the Café, Communicare, Quennevais Rd, St Brelade.  JiT member Sam Andrews also works on behalf of the Marine Conservation Society. In 2009, a network of marine conservation zones was proposed around the UK, including Jersey. These zones are a way of ensuring healthy, productive seas for everyone because they help control activities that are damaging so much of oceans, and rebuild damaged habitats and populations. She will talk about how they work, the challenges faced, and why we all need to stay informed and to care about our precious marine environment. Shake of the fug of Christmas and get your brain cells working again!