Closer to home UPDATED

Saturday I was very relieved because our daughter arrived home.  She had been on a language study trip for a week. In Italy.   Naturally I have been watching events there rather more closely than I might otherwise have done.  And it is disturbing in several ways, particularly as the Italian government response to the covid-19 virus was pretty good. Luckily daughter was not in the infected region and they weren't traveling back with Flybe.  Even when the schools were closed the language school she was at stayed open.  And when Easyjet started cancelling flights from Italy for lack of demand, hers wasn't affected.  They did a few visits of course to the tower at Pisa and to Florence, and judging by her account and the pictures those tourist sites were far less busy than normal.  That's was all before the latest announcement that the whole of the country is now in lock-down.


The statistics on the virus are tricky to interpret. Partly that's because of the 2 week or so incubation period which  you ought to account for in comparing numbers of cases with mortality and hospitalisation figures. Statistics from Italy and China over mortality rates and hospitalisations are also notably different. Two potential real reasons for that I can identify - demographics  and differing strains of the virus.  Demographics because the virus affects over 65's rather more severely than younger cohorts, so rates will appear higher in places with a higher average age.  If it should be because Italy has a different more aggressive strain that really troubling.  It implies it can mutate very rapidly and that is big trouble.  The  other possibility is that someone is 'managing' their official figures.


Something that is quite clear from Italy is that the symptoms are severe in a significant portion of the cases.  The mortality rates seem to be a touch below 3% and many people , especially younger ones, get mild symptoms and do recover.  But about 10% need intensive care.  And that is where the immediate stain comes - on the demands on the health system.  I don't know how prepared Jersey is in terms of intensive care capacity (facilities and staff), face masks etc.  I do know other places have been caught flat footed.  The State of Washington had to issue emergency instructions because they were about to run out of face masks in hospitals , and had been scrounging stuff from vets and even builders supplies to give to patients. Staff were instructed not to use them!


To my mind the response of the States of Jersey , like that of the UK and US governments, has been appallingly lax and ill informed.  Washing hands properly and working from home, if you are one of those non essential people who works at a desk, is fine.  But it is inadequate.  The latest comment I have seen from the Chief Minister was claiming testing at the ports wouldn't meet their requirements.  Possibly so if their requirements are unrealistic.  You won't stop the virus reaching us by testing like that.  There are at least two well documented instances of the virus being passed on by someone who is asymptomatic.  But testing everyone entering would shift the odds and also buy some time. Certainly the pressure on the hospital here would be lessened if we get past the seasonal flu period and have more time to arrange adequate intensive care capacity.  And yes it is possible to do it. Mongolia last week banned flights from high risk countries, Germany is testing  at some borders, including road passengers.  By comparison Jersey has limited access points so should find testing a doddle.  Israel is expected to go further and require all entering the county to go into quarantine initially.  Probably a step too far for us at this stage.

China and Italy have responded swiftly and strongly.   If the official figures from China are right they are getting on top of the virus spread.  Italy despite their efforts has not, yet.  I find it revealing to see those places that have taken strong action are those that have a tendency of putting citizens interests before those of business.  Places like the UK, USA and Jersey where the first reaction typically is to think of the economy are way less prepared, and have done little beyond issue the predictable trite 'don't panic', 'wash your hands', 'we are prepared'.

That brings me to a point where I think  the comments from the Chief Minister are most misguided.  He was quoted saying that if the economy did suffer we have reserves and funds to deal with it.  Yes there are reserves and funds, but no it wont be effective if this is a pandemic developing. There are two main reasons for this.  First, unless the funds are heavily skewed in the allocation to US treasuries and gold or well hedged with some short or inverse positions the values are dropping rapidly and will continue  as economies everywhere slow down. Second as economies falter and people get ill, the government costs rise -sick pay, unemployment benefits, while tax revenues tend to fall. If you think the government are going to use those reserves to prop up the economy rather than bailing out its cashflow, you are a bigger optimist than me!

Finally I want to point out something alluded to above. The choke points that can be used to test people entering. In that scenario they are an advantage. But in another scenario it is a problem.  Imagine just for a moment that the crews of the ferries to Jersey are quarantined for two week because they have the virus...

UPDATE . Call from school this morning that all those on the trip have to self isolate.  The info comes from update UK advice, but isn't retrospective there.  Jersey officials have decided to apply retrospectively.

Three cheers and one big warning.

My old friend Daniel didn't get elected as a Green MP. Not any great surprise in the East Midlands which is seldom kind to third parties electorally. But two friends from my days in ULS did win seats for the Lib Dems - Martin Horwood and Jane Brophy.  I particularly remember Jane as a strong campaigner  on acid rain and climate change.  Personally I'm also pleased to see Molly Scott Cato returned as a Green MEP.
 

Inevitably the Euro election results are being seen in the UK as a Brexit referendum proxy.  But I think Brexit just magnified in the UK a trend evident across most of Europe.  The parties that made gains were Liberals, Greens and populists.  The far right surge some had predicted didn't happen though they scored in France, Italy and Hungary.


The big losers were largely the established power holding parties.  It is amazing the Labour has no MEPs in Scotland and came third in Wales  while the Tories could only muster probably 4 (Scottish results pending), and their worst results since they became a party in 1834!


So what of the warning?  There are no pan European parties  in  EU elections currently.  MEP's represent national parties who federate or combine into groups in the parliament.  And likely now the largest national party in the parliament will be Farage's Brexit party!  And that is all too typical of what happens when consensus breaks down and views polarise - populists  gain undue sway.  Of course if Britain does actually leave Farage's influence there will be terminated.  But that's little comfort - populists are a bit like hydra heads - chop one off and a couple more appear.  


If Europe and Britain have started to see the critical need to address ecological and human issues beyond just economics, that's good. But the transition from here to  that being a major force will be turbulent and difficult.  That uncertain ground between the turning of major political tides is an opportunity also for populists and demagogues .  Beware.

Groundhog reform day is June 4th.

Yes there is to be another States debate on  (not) reforming themselves.  Given the criticism made by the Commonwealth observers at the last election, it is hard  to see how no change can be supported.  PPC have a proposal that pretty much  meets all the expected international convention criteria.  You can see the proposal explained at   -voting-reform-cards-again/





I think there is a small wrinkle that can be dealt with in an amendment.  As it stands it is possible in these constituencies that none of the representatives lives, works or has any tie to one of the member parishes.  Most likely to affect St Mary because of it's small population. 



To deal with that I would argue  for  giving the  constables  a right of audience (not a vote) in the States Assembly to raise parish specific matters.  I would also argue they should have the right to make a proposition  but only where requested to do so by a Parish Assembly. 


Of course that still leaves a problem that there is no overall Island wide mandate for anyone.  No change is going to give everyone what they want.  On the plus side, potentially, just nine districts would mean a party or campaign group could realistically aim to have a representative stand in every constituency.  We might get some seriously thought out, comprehensive and detailed competing manifestos and programmes for government.  Wouldn't that be novel.

Where are your chickens?

Yesterday Helen spotted a ferret while she was out tending to the pullets.  They are lethal to poultry, often killing small flocks of birds for no clear reason. It put me in mind of various chicken related aphorisms, and how they seems very appropriate to the state  Jersey is in today.



In the past few days we have had headlines about our water quality, the ridiculously high levels of contaminants in tests at the waterfront, the Environment Minister saying we need a law on air pollution, and the OECD report that makes it clear we are still at the bottom of the league in civil engagement, our disposable income per capita is lower than the average and our overall quality of life ranking is slipping.


None of this should really be news.  Many ecologically minded activists from the former group Concern to  Stuart Syvret  predicted this since the 1990's.    The origins go back further of course to an obsession in the Island that growing the economy is the magic solution to  political problems.  And growing the economy meant growing the population. But we did that without any due planning for the impacts or acknowledgement of the problems that would inevitably ensue once the benefits wore and the ponzi  nature took dominance.  Those headlines they are the chickens coming home to roost....


Jersey is not alone in that live for today and hang the future consequences is far from uncommon.   You can find evidence all over the place, from pitiful household savings and pension provision to the dubious yield chasing strategies of big agi business. 


For thirty years  those of us who campaigned and tried to use the given political structures and tools to avert the growing ecological crisis have failed.  At practically every turn the economic growth argument has trumped the debate.  Yes there have been changes, but not I would say where it matters.  People and businesses  have been persuaded to make substitutional changes.  But no fundamental changes.  So they replace their light bulbs with low energy ones , maybe cut down a bit on meat consumption, and perhaps look to an electric car when they next come to change vehicle.  But they (we) are still consuming and polluting and destroying beyond what is bearable. 





As the odds and risks grow, particularly in respect to climate change and its impacts, the  approach to campaigning has shifted.  Today across 20 or so of the 'advanced' countries of the world, activists will be taking part in events under the banner of Extinction Rebellion

 

Some readers will be aware I was one of the founders and for some year chair of the Jersey Climate Action Network.  I stepped down as chair a couple of years ago  largely for some of the same reasons the founders of Extinction Rebellion started their set up.  Traditional campaigning wasn't working and the response from governments and businesses in particular wasn't up to speed.  Purely coincidence, but of course their campaign caught my attention.


Clearly they have adopted an emotive and controversial title for themselves.  There is evidence the rate of species loss is much greater than normally expected. So yes extinction in the widest sense.  Rebellion is a bit trickier.  I don't have a problem with non violent direct action, but I wouldn't call that rebellion.  Most dictionary definitions of rebellion specifically cite it as armed or violent. I 'd argue for disobedience.


Another thing that worries me a little about the events I have read of planned in London is that they aim to close streets. I get it  -road traffic is a major contributor to green house gases emissions.   But the target isn't the ordinary people , it is the government , possibly big polluting businesses, not ordinary citizens.   Indeed of the actions are to inconvenient to the public yo might well find it losses support rather than garners it, though you probably will get some news coverage.


My one other niggle is that what they are calling for is a mechanism , and a target, but there is no sense of how it is achieved, or even is achievable.  To my mind the time for talking has passed.  We can keep setting  tighter targets, but targets aren't the problem. It is lack of urgent action to meet the targets that is the problem, and nothing here resolves that. 


The local event today in the Royal Square differs a little.  Because there is already a proposition going to the States to step up its act on climate change the meeting at lunchtime is more a lobby in support of that. That I can support without qualms.  However I certainly will not be wearing black as requested by local organisers.  I can see that might work as a sort of mourning for the habitats and species already lost.  But black at a political/public lobbying event is the signature of fascists and I will not do that. 









https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2019/04/13/quality-of-life-in-jersey-has-dropped-oecd-index-shows/

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2019/04/14/minister-we-need-law-to-tackle-air-pollution/

https://www.bailiwickexpress.com/jsy/news/horizon-pollution-criminal-investigation/


https://xrebellion.org/