Congratulations to Senator Ferguson, shame on you Jersey.
An abysmal turnout, a lack of factual background material available to the public on the candidates and their past voting and political records and a situation not helped by an outdated first past the post election system.
The outcome. We elected a senator who said on radio she'd have supported UKIP at
the last UK election, is sceptical to put it mildly on climate change,
and opposes most renewable energy options. Of course none of that was mentioned on her election leaflet. She did talk and write about opposing new taxes/charges, but forget to mention she voted for GST and against exemptions when she had the power to do so in the States. Maybe she has changed her mind, we might have known had there been anything like debate in the election and detailed reporting in the press on issues rather than caricatures and snide observation on husting attendance.
This isn't working, but how to change. It isn't arguing about electoral change and constitution . It isn't angry letters to the JEP (though that might help you feel better), it is to take back the communications between the activists and the public, not let intermediaries and commercial interests have a stranglehold . Online helps a little with that, but not enough - it needs activists on streets year round connecting with people face to face , door to door. Very old fashioned, very effective, almost impossible on any meaningful scale without structure and organisation and resources.
Don't get mad, get active!
It is not easy picking a candidate to vote for. No one has impressed me with any great grasp of the ecological and global challenges that will impact Jersey and in which we have a moral obligation to play our part. Nor have I been impressed that some very important extant local issues have been barely mentioned, eg the Committee of Inquiry and its implications.
Council of Ministers supporters are very thin among the candidates. Only Mary O'keefee Burger seems to be fully behind their programme. Given several astounding gaffes from her they are probably thinking they would be better off without her support. She isn't going to get elected anyway. Nor is Nick Le Cornu or Mike Dun.
Mike Dun's campaign is arguably the most logical. This result won't change the CoM or their policies in any material way. So a single issue campaign is not a problem. The 20 month tenure of the successful candidate tallies fairly well with the Brexit timetable . It could have significant implications for Jersey, particularly in trade and labour. But ecologically it is largely irrelevant. If you think Brexit is the overriding concern of our time or if you want a Senator who questions everything Mike might be your candidate.
On paper Hugh Raymond is exactly the sort of candidate Jersey likes. Extensive business experience, including in finance, public service as an honorary officer, and several other public roles. Despite what Mr Ocean claims, he probably is the dependable safe pair of hands type option. My impression is he is doing better in the country parishes than might be supposed, but not so well in urban areas. He has several times mentioned climate change and also questioned the volume of cars owned locally.
Christian May is doing well amoung younger professionals. He has run a positive campaign on the whole, whilst trying to distance himself from the Council of Ministers. He is going down well amoungst liberals and many professionals who like a conscience salving bit of social progress to go alongside their otherwise business as usual agenda. He has made a specific point about climate change impact locally a few times (a definite plus) and university access. I like a lot of what he has foccussed on (but then I am a liberal so that's no surprise) on the social agenda, but I am unconvinced he has it to take a real fight to the Ministers in the assembly if it came to it. He will do well and has a chance of winning.
Sarah Ferguson appears to be doing well. Probably this is down to her opposition to CoM policies on tax and finance. Some of her analysis here is good, but her record of voting for GST and against exemptions for food does not chime with her current position on the hustings. She has tried toning down her climate change scepticism, but after the St Ouen husting she reinterated to me her opposition of renewables on some sprurious tax ground leading to fuel povery to pensioners (that is not renewables, that is down to regressive tariff structures). She might appeal to right wingers/libertarian types , but it is definitely a no from me.
Stevie Ocean's policy platform makes no political sense to me. He is very well known, and usually that plays well for candidates, unless they are associated with problems or perceived failure. Guy de Faye is also very well known, but comes with 'baggage'. It will be intriguing to see which one polls better, but neither seems set to become senator this election.
Reform's candidate is Sam Mezec. He as spoken well at the hustings and has made some impact with his campaign. He hasn't been as strong on environmental matters as I would like. If your politics are social democratic, Sam is your candidate. He is in with a chance of winning, all depending on the turnout in St Helier and some of the other urban areas.
Lastly there is John Young. His performance hasn't been the most polished, and his leflet isn't eye catching, but the content has been overall pretty decent. Definitely on the progressive side, and with a track record of asking awkward questions and bringing, sometimes winning, propositions to the assembly. He has been consistent on the built environment and utility scale renewables, if like the others rather lacking on ecological matters. From my non scientific survey he is getting a good proportion the deep green votes, not that there are enough of those to give anyone a victory.
It gets far too hot in the middle of the day for me to be working in the field. So I took the opportunity to watch the first by election hustings over a long lunch. I wish I hadn't - it was unsavoury, unappetising and nearly made me wretch. I'm not referring to the food. The video is at St Saviour husting
I won't run you through a critique of all the opening 3 minute speeches. I'll cut straight to the answers given to one very good question from the floor. What are the three greatest challenges to Jersey over the next 20-30 years?
I'll summarise the responses in the order candidates gave their replies. There was a time limit to answer jointly two questions so some could not give three priorities.
M O'K B Brexit, economy, education
AA Economy . immigration (no third)
HR Brexit, (no second, no third)
JY Brexit, finance sector growth, population growth
SF Brexit, banking industry, falling productivity
MD Brexit (no second, no third)
CM Diversify Economy, education, ageing population
NleC Alternative for finance industry, Brexit, Inequality, Constitutional reform (YES That is 4!)
SM Culture of Complacency, Brexity, population
GdeF Transport links, creative thinking (no third)
SO Establishing a film commission , Brexit.
I'll happily accept population, and diversifying the economy is a tolerable answer, but as to the rest, I have to ask really, I mean really? Brexit may not even happen. If it does we cannot yet foresee the impacts or manner of it happening, it may even be beneficial. Compared to the certain increasing challenges of climate change, food security, resource depletion, ecosystems collapse over the same timescale, I want to ask the candidates what f**king planet are you on? It is certainly not mine!
OK so you are not really internationalists, but what about local issues? Does no one expect or hope for any major impact of the COI over the coming decades. The evidence is there we had kids in care abused over decades, but it is now just sweetness and light , all dealt with , is it? Justice? Is there really no challenge or change required in our justice system over the coming decades? What about the galloping rate of science and technical change and the impact it will have - the surveillance and personal intrusion of having everything tracked and monitored? Have we no ambition on renewable energy, self reliance for the coming decades? What about inclusion, participation, democracy itself?
My overall assessment. FAIL , the lot of them. I'm bitterly disappointed in Sam Mezec and John Young who I had hoped might have a grasp on a few of these issues and be prepared to take them on. The best prospect on those criteria based on the St Saviour hustings was Christian May. He mentions climate change in his vote.je profile (as does Hugh Raymond). He talks of standing up the COM and power, but he uses all the CoM current buzz words and favoured topics (like ageing population and digital). When a One Nation Tory (as I believe he probably is) is your best bet you now things are pretty dire.
And as for my children's generation. They have been abandoned by our aspirant politics it seems.
In an Island of just over 100,000 people officially, I guess I know about a thousand with some chance of remembering the name that goes with the face. What does it say about our electoral system and its representativeness then that I personally know 8 of the 11 candidates nominated for the by-election tonight, and two others are somewhat familiar to me from previous elections. I expect six of those would recognise me too. Elections shouldn't be that personal, it really isn't a healthy sign.
Here are the candidates
Alvin Aaron
Nick Le Cornu
Mike Dun
Guy de Faye
Sarah Ferguson
Christian May
Sam Mezec
Stevie Ocean
Mary O'Keeffe-Burgher
Hugh Raymond
John Young
Yes, I'm not one of them. Yes, I was asked by a few people, but really what would standing achieve? Without a detailed wide ranging and coherent thought out manifesto for government and an organisation and some support by other elected members for that programme, nothing will happen. There are only 2 candidates on that list who from my knowledge have any grasp of the ecological and environmental issues, but I suspect neither will make it a major element of their election bid.
Hustings as in number of are being hotly debated, but why I wonder. In all my time campaigning in local, county and national election in the UK I never had a candidate hustings. That only ever happened in student elections and in candidate selection meetings. The format with more than a handful of candidates leaves no scope for debate , no means to challenge other candidates positions and policies. Just like the vapid statements so often put out as manifestos, it reduces the whole affair to little more than a name recognition exercise for the public. I guess that suits those with dubious to shredded records to defend , or in our system not have to defend.
I am not against having hustings. I've done them and I think it is good the electorate have an opportunity to see the candidates and hear someething of them. However it is to my mind inadequate and insufficient for the reasons given above.
